Global air travel demand continued its upward trajectory in February 2026, reinforcing expectations of a robust year for the aviation industry. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), total passenger demand—measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK)—rose by 6.1% compared to February 2025, reflecting sustained confidence in air travel despite emerging geopolitical and economic pressures.

Capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), increased by 5.6% year-on-year, slightly trailing demand growth. This imbalance helped push the global load factor to 81.4%, up 0.3 percentage points and marking the highest February load factor on record. The figures underscore a market that remains both resilient and increasingly efficient in matching supply with passenger demand.

Strong Fundamentals Amid Global Uncertainty

While February’s performance highlights a solid foundation for growth, the broader outlook is not without challenges. Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, noted that although demand trends remain positive, geopolitical instability—particularly in the Middle East—introduces significant uncertainty.

Fuel prices have surged sharply, placing additional strain on airline operating costs. With already tight capacity and thin margins, airlines are responding by increasing fares. At the same time, capacity deployment is being recalibrated, particularly on routes touching the Middle East or regions affected by fuel supply constraints.

This cautious approach is already visible in forward planning. Capacity growth projections for March have been revised downward to 3.3%, compared to earlier expectations exceeding 5%, signalling a more conservative outlook in the near term.

International Markets Show Balanced Growth

International passenger demand rose by 5.9% year-on-year in February, supported by steady capacity growth of 5.3%. The international load factor improved to 80.5%, up 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

Growth patterns varied across regions, reflecting both seasonal travel trends and shifting market dynamics. Asia-Pacific carriers led the way, posting an 8.6% increase in demand, supported in part by strong Lunar New Year travel. Capacity in the region rose by 7.3%, with load factors reaching an impressive 86.6%.

Traffic flows between Europe and Asia were particularly robust, recording a 14% increase, with notable strength on routes connecting Asia to Southern European destinations such as Spain and Italy.

European airlines reported a 5.0% increase in demand, with capacity rising 4.5% and load factors reaching 75.6%. North American carriers matched this demand growth at 5.0%, but with more modest capacity expansion of 2.4%, resulting in a stronger load factor improvement to 80.9%.

Latin American airlines delivered the standout performance, with demand surging by 13.5% year-on-year. Capacity grew by 9.3%, pushing load factors up significantly to 85.0%. This reflects continued recovery and expansion across key markets in the region.

In contrast, Middle Eastern carriers experienced slower growth, with demand rising just 0.9% while capacity increased by 3.8%. This imbalance led to a decline in load factors to 79.6%, highlighting the impact of regional instability.

African airlines recorded a 4.8% increase in demand, but capacity expansion of 6.6% outpaced this growth, resulting in a slight drop in load factors to 74.5%. Despite this, the region still posted the highest overall RPK growth globally at 11.9% when including domestic and international markets combined, albeit from a smaller base representing 2.2% of global traffic.

Domestic Markets Driven by Emerging Economies

Domestic air travel remained a key pillar of global growth, with demand rising by 6.3% year-on-year. Capacity increases closely matched this at 6.2%, keeping the domestic load factor stable at 82.8%.

Emerging markets played a significant role in driving this growth. Brazil and China were standout performers, with domestic demand increasing by 12.6% and 12.5% respectively. These gains reflect strong economic activity and continued expansion of middle-class travel demand.

China’s domestic market maintained one of the highest load factors globally at 85.9%, despite capacity growth outpacing demand slightly. Brazil also recorded a solid load factor of 82.3%, supported by strong passenger volumes.

In contrast, mature markets showed more modest growth. The United States recorded a 1.5% increase in domestic demand, while capacity rose by just 0.3%, resulting in a load factor of 79.6%. India and Japan saw relatively flat growth, reflecting more stable, mature demand patterns.

Australia was the only major domestic market to record a decline in demand, falling by 1.1% while capacity increased by 3.8%, leading to a notable drop in load factor to 69.2%.

Outlook: Growth with Caution

February’s data paints a picture of an aviation sector that is fundamentally strong, with demand continuing to outpace capacity in many regions. However, the operating environment is becoming increasingly complex.

Rising fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and supply constraints are forcing airlines to adopt more cautious growth strategies. Capacity adjustments, route realignments and fare increases are likely to define the near-term landscape.

Despite these headwinds, the industry’s ability to sustain demand growth above 6% highlights its resilience and adaptability. As 2026 progresses, the balance between growth ambitions and operational realities will be critical in shaping the trajectory of global air travel.

For now, February stands as a clear signal: passenger appetite for air travel remains strong and the aviation industry continues to navigate turbulence with measured confidence.