Urbanisation and economic development are set to drive a massive, long-term expansion in global air travel demand over the next two decades, according to the newly released Airbus 2026–2045 Global Market Forecast. Despite short-term global disruptions, including regional conflicts, economic headwinds and fluctuating fuel prices, historical data shows that passenger demand consistently recovers and maintains a highly resilient upward trajectory. This sustained growth is fundamentally anchored in population expansion, global wealth creation and an undeniable human desire to connect across borders.

A defining structural shift highlighted in the forecast is the changing nature of global urbanisation. While massive megacities have traditionally anchored international flight routes, the next twenty years will see urban growth shift dramatically toward smaller and medium-sized cities. These smaller urban centres are expanding at a significantly faster pace than established mega-hubs, prompting a natural decentralisation of airline networks. Armed with highly efficient new-generation aircraft, operators are increasingly bypassing congested hubs to establish direct, economically viable connections between secondary city-pairs. Routes such as Riga to Tenerife or Melbourne to Alice Springs are prime examples of regional services that can already be served profitably and efficiently by modern, versatile aircraft like the Airbus A220.

Beyond short-haul regional networks, the enhanced range of modern aircraft is opening entirely new nonstop long-haul markets that once required a layover. Airlines are using these technological gains to link previously disconnected communities. This is illustrated by routes like Lisbon to Recife operated by the A321neo, Dublin to Nashville on the A321XLR, Algiers to Kuala Lumpur utilizing the A330neo and Taipei to Phoenix served by the flagship A350. This direct point-to-point capability provides travellers with shorter transit times while offering airlines highly efficient, low-risk tools to test and grow new markets.

Airbus’s product strategy directly mirrors this evolving market demand, which is reflected in a record-breaking order book of approximately 9,000 aircraft. This backlog supports high production rates across the entire Airbus family, including a target rate of 75 aircraft per month for the popular A320 family. Over 70% of the current A320 backlog is dedicated to the larger A321neo and A321XLR variants, which are ideally configured to develop these new city pairs. Meanwhile, the A330neo serves as a highly efficient option for higher-capacity mid-range routes, and the A350 dominates the longest-haul sectors. The A350 is also seeing high demand in the cargo market, where the new A350 Freighter is becoming a preferred choice for transporting high-value, quick-to-market goods.

Underpinning this fleet expansion are massive demographic shifts, particularly in emerging economies. By 2045, the global middle class—the demographic segment most likely to fly—is expected to grow by 1.4 billion people, representing a 34% increase. Driven by average annual global GDP growth of 2.6% and a projected increase of 1.3 billion urban residents, passenger traffic is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 3.9% over the next twenty years. This trajectory means that by 2045, global air traffic will more than double, reaching approximately 10 billion passengers annually.

This traffic evolution is closely tied to an economic shift toward the Asia-Pacific region, where developing nations like India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia are emerging as primary engines of growth. Traffic patterns in these regions are heavily influenced by rising international migration and a massive increase in family-related passenger travel, often referred to as visiting friends and relatives. This highlights that aviation is not simply a tool for business, but a vital human link and an economic lifeline for communities worldwide.

To support this demand, the forecast projects a global requirement for 42,060 new aircraft deliveries over the next twenty years. While 22,240 of these aircraft will accommodate market growth, a record 19,820 deliveries will go toward replacing older, less efficient models. Approximately 81% of this total demand will be for single-aisle aircraft, with widebodies accounting for the remaining 19%. Accelerated by post-pandemic fleet aging, this massive wave of replacements will transition the global fleet from being roughly 39% new-generation aircraft in 2026 to nearly 100% by 2045, driving unprecedented gains in fuel efficiency and supporting the industry’s critical journey toward decarbonisation.