Why did United Airlines take a brand new 737 MAX-8 to the Oshkosh AirVenture airshow?

As many of us know, EAA AirVenture is the world’s biggest airshow in terms of aircraft numbers. ‘EAA’ stands for ‘Experimental Aircraft Association’, so there is a strong focus towards homebuilt aircraft. However EAA has always welcomed owners of all aircraft, whether general avaition, military, bizjet, helicopters or even airlines.

In past years, bringing large aircraft to Oshkosh was not a big deal, but what makes this appearance by United Airlines unique, is that they were punting their ‘AVIATE’ training initiative on the search for new pilots.

Before the pandemic even began, the airline launched the ‘AVIATE’ initiative, to train its next generation of pilots, and this was before they placed orders for 270 new aircraft last month. United Airlines need to train and employ 5,000 pilots by 2030.

PILOT SHORTAGE/SURPLUS?

Back in 2019, it was perceived that there would be a pilot shortage worldwide.

In the ‘2019 Oliver Wyman’ poll of flight operations leaders’, 62 percent listed a shortage of qualified pilots as a key risk factor.

Part of this problem stems from the fact that the generation of baby-boomers is now reaching retirement age. To compound matters, then along came COVID-19, causing many airlines to downsize or even close.

Initially with the outbreak of COVID-19, the conversation shifted from shortage to surplus. For carriers that were struggling with pilot supply, the pandemic provided a momentary reprieve. 

But in China, where a burgeoning middle class is demanding air travel, the struggle is to expand capacity fast enough to cope with the increase.

Additionally, many parts of the world have already regained a large portion of their lost passenger capacity when COVID-19 first restricted air travel and respective countries closed their borders.

For full passenger recovery and growth, estimates range from early 2022 to 2024 and beyond. This is good for new airlines and for those airlines that have managed to survive. For manufacturers this is also a good time to increase aircraft sales.

However new aircraft, new airlines and growing airlines need pilots, so are we back to a pilot shortage?

For pilots, demand is driven by aircraft departures and utilization rather than passengers. The global in-service fleet has already recovered in size to 76 percent of pre-COVID levels. In China, where the outbreak was earlier and better controlled, the in-service fleet is already at 99 percent.

While utilization and resulting block hours still lag historic levels globally, we expect the demand for pilots to proceed the recovery of passenger growth by two to three quarters.

Just recently in Europe, Ryanair announced a drive for 2000 new pilots over the next three years.

Apparently right now, Delta Airlines needs 1,000 pilots before the end of next year. American Airlines have returned all their current pilots, and need another 300 pilots before the end of this year.

It is forecast that more than 12,000 commercial airline pilots will be required in North America by 2023.

A global pilot shortage will emerge in certain regions no later than 2023 and most probably before. With a more rapid recovery and greater supply shocks, this could be felt as early as late this year.

In the most likely scenarios, there could be a global gap of 34,000 pilots by 2025. The worldwide requirement could grow as high as 50,000 pilots or more.

United Airlines believe the AVIATE initiative should deliver 5,000 pilots, but they acknowledge that this could easily double within this decade.

The COVID-19 crisis isn’t like 9/11, in how lasting its effects are. 

It is noted that world-wide, people who can travel, do. As a result, United and other airlines are buying new aircraft, to stay on top of demand, and they need 5,000 or more pilots to fly them.

UNITED AT OSHKOSH

The Boeing 737-8 that United flew to Oshkosh, with tail number N27253 is brand new, having first flown on the 27th of June. The airline officially took delivery of it on the 16th of July, but it only flew from Seattle to Chicago on the 25th. It flew into Oshkosh the next morning, performing as flight UA2760. The same evening, the aircraft flew out as UA2761.

United spent their day at AirVenture explaining their needs for 5,000 pilots, and life in the airlines to many groups, and certainly had an interested audience. This was welcomed by organizers, who always look to promote aviation in all its forms.