Boeing’s 2022 Pilot and Technician Outlook (PTO) forecasts 2.1 million new aviation personnel by 2041 to support the recovery in commercial air travel and long-term growth.  

The long-term forecast shows that 602,000 pilots, 610,000 maintenance technicians and 899,000 cabin crew members will be needed to support the global aviation commercial fleet over the next two decades.

The worldwide fleet of airliners is expected to nearly double and grow to 47,080 aircraft by 2041, according to Boeing’s recently released Commercial Market Outlook.

This year’s PTO represents a 3.4% increase from 2021, excluding the Russia region, which is not forecast in this year’s PTO due to sanctions that prohibit exports of aircraft manufactured in western countries and market uncertainty. China, Europe and North America represent over half of the total new personnel demand.

The fastest growing regions are Africa, Southeast Asia and South Asia, with all three regions expected to grow more than 4% over the forecast period.

“As the commercial aviation industry recovers from the pandemic and plans for long-term growth, we anticipate a steady and increasing demand for aviation personnel, as well as the ongoing need for highly effective training,” said Chris Broom, vice president, Commercial Training Solutions, Boeing Global Services. “Our customer-centric approach and digital expertise includes a commitment to delivering data driven, competency-based training and assessment solutions as well as technologies that meet the evolving needs of our customers.”

Projected demand for new pilots, technicians and cabin crew by global region for the next 20 years is approximately:

One of the problems is that ‘new millennials’ do not see a future in aviation. In a world that is falsely perceived as able to run itself, plus the future becoming more digitised through technology using mobile devices, the newer generation would rather not get their hands dirty.

The added complexities of long term study, certification, on-going training and validation of licences is also seen as stumbling blocks for younger people entering trades and long term careers. This is not only a problem for aviation worldwide, but in all areas of trade and business.

Further exacerbating this problem is that the pay for trades in aviation is far lower per hour than other industries. Airlines are not willing to invest in pilot and aviation trades to attract new employees.

Boeing says that new digital solutions to enhance the efficacy and efficiency of training, including immersive learning experiences and virtual learning platforms can be used as a part solution.

Working with business, training institutions need to attract learners, but to date this is not successful.

Let’s hope these positions can be filled, but so far it is not looking promising.